Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.323798 0.376576 0.434813 0.503782 0.583176 0.671653 0.777677
2025-04-27 0.247856 0.321985 0.412646 0.531396 0.682547 0.868215 1.113294
2025-05-04 0.203154 0.285700 0.394341 0.547175 0.755959 1.030457 1.417929
2025-05-11 0.170110 0.255401 0.374629 0.552441 0.809712 1.167057 1.699451
2025-05-18 0.143766 0.228584 0.353564 0.549667 0.847872 1.282157 1.959872
2025-05-25 0.122341 0.204899 0.332482 0.542041 0.875251 1.381476 2.204734
2025-06-01 0.106055 0.186321 0.315899 0.537826 0.905336 1.485509 2.464909
2025-06-08 0.090242 0.165897 0.293186 0.519969 0.910141 1.548633 2.664736
2025-06-15 0.085706 0.164029 0.300717 0.552880 1.001545 1.759275 3.124851
2025-06-22 0.074028 0.147573 0.280754 0.535222 1.003535 1.819816 3.336458
2025-06-29 0.064302 0.133292 0.262721 0.518444 1.004424 1.877259 3.546465
2025-07-06 0.056353 0.121282 0.247288 0.504346 1.008045 1.938829 3.768253
2025-07-13 0.051484 0.114952 0.242271 0.510242 1.051190 2.078798 4.152763
2025-07-20 0.049267 0.113880 0.247600 0.537414 1.138987 2.311621 4.737473
2025-07-27 0.046155 0.110401 0.247503 0.553333 1.205734 2.509936 5.273828
2025-08-03 0.042454 0.105042 0.242716 0.558654 1.250953 2.669558 5.747664
2025-08-10 0.038540 0.098596 0.234696 0.555850 1.278332 2.795017 6.162606
2025-08-17 0.034726 0.091812 0.225039 0.548142 1.293996 2.897219 6.537918
2025-08-24 0.031576 0.086191 0.217328 0.543882 1.316664 3.015967 6.959046
2025-08-31 0.027941 0.078785 0.204439 0.525832 1.305731 3.060452 7.221548
2025-09-07 0.027579 0.079919 0.212440 0.559098 1.418161 3.388356 8.145843
2025-09-14 0.024528 0.073332 0.200360 0.541250 1.406414 3.434135 8.431982
2025-09-21 0.021861 0.067397 0.189181 0.524290 1.394870 3.478988 8.719593